There are articles every year – some by me – that look at qualities that have defined past Final Four teams, champions, upset victims, etc. These usually use end-of-year stats, because that’s what’s readily available for past teams. But we obviously don’t have access to end-of-year stats when the tourney begins. So I thought I’d take a look at how well pre-tourney efficiency numbers match up with the final values, to see how much a team’s performance in the postseason can change our historical perception of them. I’ll be using Pomeroy’s data from the day after Selection Sunday – after the conference tournaments, but before the NCAA/NIT/CBI/CIT/WTF/ETC.
First, the Final Four teams. Remember, for the changes in defense and rank, negative is good:
Butler’s defense went from very good to elite over the course of 6 games, and I don’t think you’ll find anyone that would argue that the ratings bump wasn’t deserved – and obvious. What might not have been so obvious was that Duke’s offense switched to a higher gear during the tournament, with their offensive efficiency improving almost as much as Butler’s D. Michigan State’s offense improved, and their defense declined, and the result was a slightly more balanced team. West Virginia was basically the opposite of Michigan State.
Now let’s look at aggregate stats for all the NCAA tournament teams (the only ones we really care about):
The average magnitude of change for both offensive and defensive efficiency is about 2/3 of a point, and about 5 ranking spots. And some teams improved or declined by up to 35 spots in the rankings. So be careful eliminating someone from your list of contenders just because they’re ranked 15th in something instead of 5th.
Finally, for reference, here are the changes for all teams in the tourney (hope this formats well):
CHANGES IN EFFICIENCY DURING NCAA TOURNAMENT | ||||||||||||||||||
| BEFORE | AFTER | CHANGE | |||||||||||||||
Team | Off | Rnk | Def | Rnk | Pyth | Rnk | Off | Rnk | Def | Rnk | Pyth | Rnk | Off | Rnk | Def | Rnk | Pyth | Rnk |
Duke | 121.5 | 1 | 85.9 | 4 | 0.982 | 1 | 123.5 | 1 | 85.9 | 4 | 0.985 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.003 | 0 |
Kansas | 121.4 | 2 | 86.1 | 5 | 0.981 | 2 | 121.5 | 2 | 87.1 | 8 | 0.979 | 2 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.0 | 3 | -0.002 | 0 |
Kentucky | 115.5 | 18 | 87.7 | 10 | 0.960 | 6 | 116.1 | 15 | 86.3 | 6 | 0.968 | 3 | 0.6 | -3 | -1.3 | -4 | 0.008 | -3 |
Syracuse | 117.9 | 9 | 89.1 | 20 | 0.962 | 5 | 118.0 | 8 | 89.0 | 18 | 0.963 | 4 | 0.2 | -1 | -0.1 | -2 | 0.001 | -1 |
Ohio St. | 119.0 | 7 | 89.8 | 22 | 0.962 | 4 | 118.6 | 7 | 90.2 | 24 | 0.959 | 5 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.4 | 2 | -0.003 | 1 |
Baylor | 119.6 | 5 | 92.7 | 52 | 0.949 | 12 | 120.4 | 3 | 91.7 | 34 | 0.958 | 6 | 0.9 | -2 | -1.0 | -18 | 0.009 | -6 |
Kansas St. | 115.8 | 16 | 88.9 | 19 | 0.955 | 9 | 116.6 | 13 | 88.9 | 17 | 0.957 | 7 | 0.8 | -3 | 0.1 | -2 | 0.003 | -2 |
West Virginia | 117.5 | 11 | 90.0 | 24 | 0.955 | 8 | 117.0 | 11 | 89.4 | 22 | 0.957 | 8 | -0.4 | 0 | -0.6 | -2 | 0.001 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 116.5 | 13 | 87.3 | 7 | 0.965 | 3 | 115.6 | 17 | 89.1 | 19 | 0.952 | 9 | -0.8 | 4 | 1.8 | 12 | -0.012 | 6 |
Brigham Young | 117.4 | 12 | 89.6 | 21 | 0.957 | 7 | 117.1 | 10 | 90.7 | 27 | 0.950 | 10 | -0.3 | -2 | 1.1 | 6 | -0.008 | 3 |
Maryland | 119.1 | 6 | 91.7 | 40 | 0.953 | 10 | 119.3 | 5 | 92.7 | 50 | 0.947 | 11 | 0.2 | -1 | 1.0 | 10 | -0.005 | 1 |
Butler | 109.6 | 55 | 88.4 | 15 | 0.922 | 26 | 110.2 | 50 | 86.2 | 5 | 0.944 | 12 | 0.6 | -5 | -2.3 | -10 | 0.023 | -14 |
Georgetown | 117.6 | 10 | 90.9 | 33 | 0.951 | 11 | 117.4 | 9 | 92.6 | 47 | 0.938 | 13 | -0.2 | -1 | 1.8 | 14 | -0.012 | 2 |
Xavier | 115.8 | 15 | 92.7 | 50 | 0.928 | 22 | 116.3 | 14 | 92.0 | 39 | 0.937 | 14 | 0.5 | -1 | -0.7 | -11 | 0.009 | -8 |
California | 121.0 | 3 | 95.6 | 81 | 0.938 | 14 | 120.1 | 4 | 95.1 | 73 | 0.936 | 15 | -0.9 | 1 | -0.5 | -8 | -0.002 | 1 |
Purdue | 109.8 | 49 | 86.4 | 6 | 0.940 | 13 | 108.3 | 70 | 85.8 | 3 | 0.936 | 16 | -1.5 | 21 | -0.6 | -3 | -0.004 | 3 |
Texas A&M | 111.9 | 39 | 89.9 | 23 | 0.925 | 23 | 111.9 | 38 | 88.8 | 14 | 0.935 | 17 | 0.0 | -1 | -1.1 | -9 | 0.010 | -6 |
Texas | 113.4 | 26 | 90.2 | 26 | 0.933 | 17 | 113.5 | 25 | 90.2 | 25 | 0.933 | 18 | 0.1 | -1 | 0.0 | -1 | 0.000 | 1 |
Missouri | 109.8 | 50 | 87.8 | 12 | 0.928 | 21 | 111.3 | 43 | 88.8 | 13 | 0.931 | 19 | 1.5 | -7 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.002 | -2 |
Clemson | 110.4 | 47 | 87.7 | 9 | 0.934 | 16 | 110.9 | 44 | 88.9 | 15 | 0.928 | 20 | 0.6 | -3 | 1.2 | 6 | -0.006 | 4 |
Villanova | 118.7 | 8 | 93.9 | 62 | 0.937 | 15 | 116.6 | 12 | 94.0 | 62 | 0.923 | 21 | -2.1 | 4 | 0.2 | 0 | -0.014 | 6 |
Temple | 107.5 | 77 | 85.7 | 3 | 0.931 | 18 | 107.8 | 75 | 87.0 | 7 | 0.922 | 22 | 0.3 | -2 | 1.3 | 4 | -0.009 | 4 |
Michigan St. | 112.0 | 38 | 90.3 | 27 | 0.923 | 24 | 112.9 | 28 | 91.1 | 30 | 0.922 | 23 | 0.9 | -10 | 0.8 | 3 | -0.001 | -1 |
Florida St. | 105.2 | 119 | 83.9 | 1 | 0.931 | 19 | 104.6 | 130 | 84.5 | 1 | 0.921 | 24 | -0.5 | 11 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.010 | 5 |
Utah St. | 116.4 | 14 | 93.0 | 54 | 0.930 | 20 | 115.6 | 18 | 93.7 | 58 | 0.918 | 25 | -0.9 | 4 | 0.7 | 4 | -0.012 | 5 |
Georgia Tech | 109.5 | 57 | 88.7 | 17 | 0.919 | 27 | 109.1 | 62 | 88.6 | 12 | 0.917 | 27 | -0.4 | 5 | -0.1 | -5 | -0.002 | 0 |
Tennessee | 106.2 | 99 | 87.3 | 8 | 0.904 | 35 | 108.9 | 64 | 88.5 | 11 | 0.916 | 28 | 2.8 | -35 | 1.1 | 3 | 0.012 | -7 |
Northern Iowa | 107.3 | 81 | 87.9 | 13 | 0.909 | 32 | 109.3 | 61 | 88.9 | 16 | 0.915 | 29 | 1.9 | -20 | 1.0 | 3 | 0.006 | -3 |
Washington | 112.6 | 32 | 91.5 | 38 | 0.916 | 29 | 112.2 | 36 | 91.3 | 31 | 0.915 | 30 | -0.4 | 4 | -0.2 | -7 | -0.001 | 1 |
Pittsburgh | 111.7 | 41 | 90.9 | 34 | 0.915 | 30 | 111.5 | 40 | 90.7 | 26 | 0.915 | 31 | -0.2 | -1 | -0.2 | -8 | 0.000 | 1 |
Minnesota | 114.1 | 23 | 92.1 | 43 | 0.922 | 25 | 112.9 | 29 | 92.1 | 40 | 0.912 | 32 | -1.2 | 6 | 0.0 | -3 | -0.010 | 7 |
Marquette | 114.3 | 22 | 92.6 | 48 | 0.919 | 28 | 114.6 | 22 | 93.6 | 57 | 0.911 | 33 | 0.3 | 0 | 1.0 | 9 | -0.008 | 5 |
Old Dominion | 107.9 | 72 | 88.5 | 16 | 0.907 | 33 | 107.5 | 82 | 88.4 | 10 | 0.904 | 34 | -0.4 | 10 | -0.1 | -6 | -0.003 | 1 |
Vanderbilt | 114.0 | 25 | 94.1 | 64 | 0.901 | 36 | 113.7 | 24 | 93.8 | 60 | 0.901 | 35 | -0.3 | -1 | -0.3 | -4 | 0.000 | -1 |
Texas El Paso | 107.5 | 78 | 88.3 | 14 | 0.905 | 34 | 107.1 | 88 | 89.3 | 21 | 0.891 | 37 | -0.4 | 10 | 1.0 | 7 | -0.015 | 3 |
Notre Dame | 119.8 | 4 | 99.3 | 140 | 0.897 | 38 | 118.8 | 6 | 99.1 | 132 | 0.890 | 38 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.2 | -8 | -0.007 | 0 |
Nevada Las Vegas | 109.5 | 58 | 90.7 | 29 | 0.897 | 37 | 110.0 | 51 | 91.9 | 38 | 0.887 | 39 | 0.5 | -7 | 1.2 | 9 | -0.010 | 2 |
Oklahoma St. | 112.2 | 37 | 94.0 | 63 | 0.885 | 44 | 112.7 | 31 | 94.2 | 63 | 0.887 | 40 | 0.5 | -6 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.003 | -4 |
San Diego St. | 111.0 | 43 | 92.1 | 42 | 0.895 | 40 | 110.5 | 48 | 92.6 | 45 | 0.885 | 41 | -0.4 | 5 | 0.5 | 3 | -0.010 | 1 |
St. Mary's | 114.9 | 19 | 95.7 | 82 | 0.891 | 43 | 114.9 | 20 | 96.3 | 88 | 0.884 | 42 | -0.1 | 1 | 0.6 | 6 | -0.008 | -1 |
Louisville | 114.9 | 20 | 95.3 | 77 | 0.896 | 39 | 113.8 | 23 | 95.4 | 79 | 0.884 | 43 | -1.1 | 3 | 0.1 | 2 | -0.012 | 4 |
Florida | 112.3 | 34 | 94.9 | 70 | 0.874 | 49 | 112.6 | 32 | 94.9 | 67 | 0.877 | 45 | 0.3 | -2 | 0.0 | -3 | 0.004 | -4 |
Richmond | 108.4 | 67 | 91.2 | 36 | 0.879 | 48 | 108.8 | 67 | 91.9 | 37 | 0.875 | 48 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.7 | 1 | -0.005 | 0 |
Murray St. | 108.3 | 68 | 92.3 | 45 | 0.863 | 57 | 108.2 | 71 | 91.7 | 35 | 0.870 | 50 | -0.1 | 3 | -0.5 | -10 | 0.007 | -7 |
Cornell | 113.3 | 28 | 99.2 | 139 | 0.822 | 66 | 115.9 | 16 | 98.5 | 117 | 0.867 | 52 | 2.6 | -12 | -0.7 | -22 | 0.045 | -14 |
New Mexico | 114.3 | 21 | 96.0 | 87 | 0.882 | 47 | 113.1 | 27 | 96.4 | 90 | 0.863 | 54 | -1.2 | 6 | 0.4 | 3 | -0.019 | 7 |
Gonzaga | 110.8 | 44 | 94.4 | 67 | 0.864 | 56 | 110.6 | 47 | 94.7 | 66 | 0.856 | 57 | -0.2 | 3 | 0.4 | -1 | -0.008 | 1 |
Wake Forest | 106.6 | 96 | 90.2 | 25 | 0.873 | 50 | 106.5 | 96 | 91.4 | 32 | 0.852 | 58 | -0.1 | 0 | 1.3 | 7 | -0.021 | 8 |
Siena | 108.4 | 66 | 93.6 | 59 | 0.844 | 58 | 107.7 | 77 | 93.2 | 54 | 0.841 | 59 | -0.7 | 11 | -0.4 | -5 | -0.003 | 1 |
Wofford | 102.8 | 149 | 93.1 | 56 | 0.756 | 87 | 102.9 | 148 | 92.2 | 41 | 0.779 | 79 | 0.1 | -1 | -0.9 | -15 | 0.023 | -8 |
Houston | 111.7 | 40 | 101.0 | 165 | 0.762 | 85 | 111.5 | 41 | 101.3 | 174 | 0.750 | 89 | -0.2 | 1 | 0.3 | 9 | -0.012 | 4 |
Ohio | 105.9 | 105 | 97.8 | 109 | 0.716 | 100 | 107.6 | 78 | 98.1 | 111 | 0.745 | 93 | 1.7 | -27 | 0.3 | 2 | 0.029 | -7 |
Sam Houston St. | 109.6 | 56 | 101.6 | 178 | 0.706 | 102 | 108.5 | 68 | 100.2 | 154 | 0.715 | 101 | -1.1 | 12 | -1.4 | -24 | 0.009 | -1 |
Montana | 105.7 | 110 | 98.4 | 121 | 0.696 | 105 | 105.2 | 119 | 98.2 | 114 | 0.686 | 107 | -0.6 | 9 | -0.2 | -7 | -0.010 | 2 |
New Mexico St. | 110.5 | 46 | 104.1 | 222 | 0.665 | 115 | 110.6 | 46 | 104.1 | 224 | 0.669 | 113 | 0.1 | 0 | -0.1 | 2 | 0.004 | -2 |
Vermont | 103.6 | 140 | 99.1 | 135 | 0.624 | 129 | 103.4 | 141 | 99.1 | 135 | 0.619 | 132 | -0.2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.006 | 3 |
East Tennessee St. | 99.0 | 196 | 96.1 | 88 | 0.583 | 142 | 99.4 | 195 | 96.5 | 93 | 0.583 | 142 | 0.4 | -1 | 0.4 | 5 | 0.000 | 0 |
Oakland | 106.2 | 98 | 103.1 | 212 | 0.584 | 141 | 105.5 | 110 | 103.1 | 214 | 0.567 | 146 | -0.7 | 12 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.017 | 5 |
UC Santa Barbara | 98.6 | 209 | 96.9 | 99 | 0.551 | 152 | 98.2 | 219 | 96.7 | 95 | 0.544 | 154 | -0.5 | 10 | -0.2 | -4 | -0.007 | 2 |
Morgan St. | 104.0 | 136 | 102.0 | 190 | 0.556 | 149 | 103.0 | 147 | 101.8 | 184 | 0.536 | 158 | -1.0 | 11 | -0.2 | -6 | -0.021 | 9 |
North Texas | 102.0 | 157 | 101.7 | 180 | 0.509 | 169 | 102.2 | 159 | 101.9 | 187 | 0.509 | 168 | 0.3 | 2 | 0.3 | 7 | 0.000 | -1 |
Lehigh | 104.2 | 133 | 105.1 | 242 | 0.474 | 180 | 104.9 | 125 | 104.8 | 236 | 0.503 | 171 | 0.8 | -8 | -0.3 | -6 | 0.029 | -9 |
Robert Morris | 98.9 | 200 | 100.3 | 154 | 0.458 | 188 | 98.8 | 204 | 99.2 | 140 | 0.488 | 176 | -0.1 | 4 | -1.1 | -14 | 0.030 | -12 |
Arkansas Pine Bluff | 90.4 | 307 | 97.9 | 111 | 0.286 | 238 | 91.2 | 302 | 97.0 | 97 | 0.330 | 222 | 0.8 | -5 | -0.9 | -14 | 0.044 | -16 |
Winthrop | 90.2 | 309 | 94.2 | 65 | 0.375 | 212 | 89.5 | 316 | 95.7 | 80 | 0.316 | 229 | -0.7 | 7 | 1.4 | 15 | -0.059 | 17 |