Tuesday, April 6, 2010

The Journey Counts

There are articles every year – some by me – that look at qualities that have defined past Final Four teams, champions, upset victims, etc.  These usually use end-of-year stats, because that’s what’s readily available for past teams.  But we obviously don’t have access to end-of-year stats when the tourney begins.  So I thought I’d take a look at how well pre-tourney efficiency numbers match up with the final values, to see how much a team’s performance in the postseason can change our historical perception of them.  I’ll be using Pomeroy’s data from the day after Selection Sunday – after the conference tournaments, but before the NCAA/NIT/CBI/CIT/WTF/ETC.

First, the Final Four teams. Remember, for the changes in defense and rank, negative is good:

image

Butler’s defense went from very good to elite over the course of 6 games, and I don’t think you’ll find anyone that would argue that the ratings bump wasn’t deserved – and obvious.  What might not have been so obvious was that Duke’s offense switched to a higher gear during the tournament, with their offensive efficiency improving almost as much as Butler’s D.  Michigan State’s offense improved, and their defense declined, and the result was a slightly more balanced team.  West Virginia was basically the opposite of Michigan State.

Now let’s look at aggregate stats for all the NCAA tournament teams (the only ones we really care about):

image

The average magnitude of change for both offensive and defensive efficiency is about 2/3 of a point, and about 5 ranking spots.  And some teams improved or declined by up to 35 spots in the rankings.  So be careful eliminating someone from your list of contenders just because they’re ranked 15th in something instead of 5th.

Finally, for reference, here are the changes for all teams in the tourney (hope this formats well):

CHANGES IN EFFICIENCY DURING NCAA TOURNAMENT

 

BEFORE

AFTER

CHANGE

Team

Off

Rnk

Def

Rnk

Pyth

Rnk

Off

Rnk

Def

Rnk

Pyth

Rnk

Off

Rnk

Def

Rnk

Pyth

Rnk

Duke

121.5

1

85.9

4

0.982

1

123.5

1

85.9

4

0.985

1

2.0

0

0.0

0

0.003

0

Kansas

121.4

2

86.1

5

0.981

2

121.5

2

87.1

8

0.979

2

0.1

0

1.0

3

-0.002

0

Kentucky

115.5

18

87.7

10

0.960

6

116.1

15

86.3

6

0.968

3

0.6

-3

-1.3

-4

0.008

-3

Syracuse

117.9

9

89.1

20

0.962

5

118.0

8

89.0

18

0.963

4

0.2

-1

-0.1

-2

0.001

-1

Ohio St.

119.0

7

89.8

22

0.962

4

118.6

7

90.2

24

0.959

5

-0.3

0

0.4

2

-0.003

1

Baylor

119.6

5

92.7

52

0.949

12

120.4

3

91.7

34

0.958

6

0.9

-2

-1.0

-18

0.009

-6

Kansas St.

115.8

16

88.9

19

0.955

9

116.6

13

88.9

17

0.957

7

0.8

-3

0.1

-2

0.003

-2

West Virginia

117.5

11

90.0

24

0.955

8

117.0

11

89.4

22

0.957

8

-0.4

0

-0.6

-2

0.001

0

Wisconsin

116.5

13

87.3

7

0.965

3

115.6

17

89.1

19

0.952

9

-0.8

4

1.8

12

-0.012

6

Brigham Young

117.4

12

89.6

21

0.957

7

117.1

10

90.7

27

0.950

10

-0.3

-2

1.1

6

-0.008

3

Maryland

119.1

6

91.7

40

0.953

10

119.3

5

92.7

50

0.947

11

0.2

-1

1.0

10

-0.005

1

Butler

109.6

55

88.4

15

0.922

26

110.2

50

86.2

5

0.944

12

0.6

-5

-2.3

-10

0.023

-14

Georgetown

117.6

10

90.9

33

0.951

11

117.4

9

92.6

47

0.938

13

-0.2

-1

1.8

14

-0.012

2

Xavier

115.8

15

92.7

50

0.928

22

116.3

14

92.0

39

0.937

14

0.5

-1

-0.7

-11

0.009

-8

California

121.0

3

95.6

81

0.938

14

120.1

4

95.1

73

0.936

15

-0.9

1

-0.5

-8

-0.002

1

Purdue

109.8

49

86.4

6

0.940

13

108.3

70

85.8

3

0.936

16

-1.5

21

-0.6

-3

-0.004

3

Texas A&M

111.9

39

89.9

23

0.925

23

111.9

38

88.8

14

0.935

17

0.0

-1

-1.1

-9

0.010

-6

Texas

113.4

26

90.2

26

0.933

17

113.5

25

90.2

25

0.933

18

0.1

-1

0.0

-1

0.000

1

Missouri

109.8

50

87.8

12

0.928

21

111.3

43

88.8

13

0.931

19

1.5

-7

1.0

1

0.002

-2

Clemson

110.4

47

87.7

9

0.934

16

110.9

44

88.9

15

0.928

20

0.6

-3

1.2

6

-0.006

4

Villanova

118.7

8

93.9

62

0.937

15

116.6

12

94.0

62

0.923

21

-2.1

4

0.2

0

-0.014

6

Temple

107.5

77

85.7

3

0.931

18

107.8

75

87.0

7

0.922

22

0.3

-2

1.3

4

-0.009

4

Michigan St.

112.0

38

90.3

27

0.923

24

112.9

28

91.1

30

0.922

23

0.9

-10

0.8

3

-0.001

-1

Florida St.

105.2

119

83.9

1

0.931

19

104.6

130

84.5

1

0.921

24

-0.5

11

0.6

0

-0.010

5

Utah St.

116.4

14

93.0

54

0.930

20

115.6

18

93.7

58

0.918

25

-0.9

4

0.7

4

-0.012

5

Georgia Tech

109.5

57

88.7

17

0.919

27

109.1

62

88.6

12

0.917

27

-0.4

5

-0.1

-5

-0.002

0

Tennessee

106.2

99

87.3

8

0.904

35

108.9

64

88.5

11

0.916

28

2.8

-35

1.1

3

0.012

-7

Northern Iowa

107.3

81

87.9

13

0.909

32

109.3

61

88.9

16

0.915

29

1.9

-20

1.0

3

0.006

-3

Washington

112.6

32

91.5

38

0.916

29

112.2

36

91.3

31

0.915

30

-0.4

4

-0.2

-7

-0.001

1

Pittsburgh

111.7

41

90.9

34

0.915

30

111.5

40

90.7

26

0.915

31

-0.2

-1

-0.2

-8

0.000

1

Minnesota

114.1

23

92.1

43

0.922

25

112.9

29

92.1

40

0.912

32

-1.2

6

0.0

-3

-0.010

7

Marquette

114.3

22

92.6

48

0.919

28

114.6

22

93.6

57

0.911

33

0.3

0

1.0

9

-0.008

5

Old Dominion

107.9

72

88.5

16

0.907

33

107.5

82

88.4

10

0.904

34

-0.4

10

-0.1

-6

-0.003

1

Vanderbilt

114.0

25

94.1

64

0.901

36

113.7

24

93.8

60

0.901

35

-0.3

-1

-0.3

-4

0.000

-1

Texas El Paso

107.5

78

88.3

14

0.905

34

107.1

88

89.3

21

0.891

37

-0.4

10

1.0

7

-0.015

3

Notre Dame

119.8

4

99.3

140

0.897

38

118.8

6

99.1

132

0.890

38

-1.0

2

-0.2

-8

-0.007

0

Nevada Las Vegas

109.5

58

90.7

29

0.897

37

110.0

51

91.9

38

0.887

39

0.5

-7

1.2

9

-0.010

2

Oklahoma St.

112.2

37

94.0

63

0.885

44

112.7

31

94.2

63

0.887

40

0.5

-6

0.2

0

0.003

-4

San Diego St.

111.0

43

92.1

42

0.895

40

110.5

48

92.6

45

0.885

41

-0.4

5

0.5

3

-0.010

1

St. Mary's

114.9

19

95.7

82

0.891

43

114.9

20

96.3

88

0.884

42

-0.1

1

0.6

6

-0.008

-1

Louisville

114.9

20

95.3

77

0.896

39

113.8

23

95.4

79

0.884

43

-1.1

3

0.1

2

-0.012

4

Florida

112.3

34

94.9

70

0.874

49

112.6

32

94.9

67

0.877

45

0.3

-2

0.0

-3

0.004

-4

Richmond

108.4

67

91.2

36

0.879

48

108.8

67

91.9

37

0.875

48

0.5

0

0.7

1

-0.005

0

Murray St.

108.3

68

92.3

45

0.863

57

108.2

71

91.7

35

0.870

50

-0.1

3

-0.5

-10

0.007

-7

Cornell

113.3

28

99.2

139

0.822

66

115.9

16

98.5

117

0.867

52

2.6

-12

-0.7

-22

0.045

-14

New Mexico

114.3

21

96.0

87

0.882

47

113.1

27

96.4

90

0.863

54

-1.2

6

0.4

3

-0.019

7

Gonzaga

110.8

44

94.4

67

0.864

56

110.6

47

94.7

66

0.856

57

-0.2

3

0.4

-1

-0.008

1

Wake Forest

106.6

96

90.2

25

0.873

50

106.5

96

91.4

32

0.852

58

-0.1

0

1.3

7

-0.021

8

Siena

108.4

66

93.6

59

0.844

58

107.7

77

93.2

54

0.841

59

-0.7

11

-0.4

-5

-0.003

1

Wofford

102.8

149

93.1

56

0.756

87

102.9

148

92.2

41

0.779

79

0.1

-1

-0.9

-15

0.023

-8

Houston

111.7

40

101.0

165

0.762

85

111.5

41

101.3

174

0.750

89

-0.2

1

0.3

9

-0.012

4

Ohio

105.9

105

97.8

109

0.716

100

107.6

78

98.1

111

0.745

93

1.7

-27

0.3

2

0.029

-7

Sam Houston St.

109.6

56

101.6

178

0.706

102

108.5

68

100.2

154

0.715

101

-1.1

12

-1.4

-24

0.009

-1

Montana

105.7

110

98.4

121

0.696

105

105.2

119

98.2

114

0.686

107

-0.6

9

-0.2

-7

-0.010

2

New Mexico St.

110.5

46

104.1

222

0.665

115

110.6

46

104.1

224

0.669

113

0.1

0

-0.1

2

0.004

-2

Vermont

103.6

140

99.1

135

0.624

129

103.4

141

99.1

135

0.619

132

-0.2

1

0.0

0

-0.006

3

East Tennessee St.

99.0

196

96.1

88

0.583

142

99.4

195

96.5

93

0.583

142

0.4

-1

0.4

5

0.000

0

Oakland

106.2

98

103.1

212

0.584

141

105.5

110

103.1

214

0.567

146

-0.7

12

0.0

2

-0.017

5

UC Santa Barbara

98.6

209

96.9

99

0.551

152

98.2

219

96.7

95

0.544

154

-0.5

10

-0.2

-4

-0.007

2

Morgan St.

104.0

136

102.0

190

0.556

149

103.0

147

101.8

184

0.536

158

-1.0

11

-0.2

-6

-0.021

9

North Texas

102.0

157

101.7

180

0.509

169

102.2

159

101.9

187

0.509

168

0.3

2

0.3

7

0.000

-1

Lehigh

104.2

133

105.1

242

0.474

180

104.9

125

104.8

236

0.503

171

0.8

-8

-0.3

-6

0.029

-9

Robert Morris

98.9

200

100.3

154

0.458

188

98.8

204

99.2

140

0.488

176

-0.1

4

-1.1

-14

0.030

-12

Arkansas Pine Bluff

90.4

307

97.9

111

0.286

238

91.2

302

97.0

97

0.330

222

0.8

-5

-0.9

-14

0.044

-16

Winthrop

90.2

309

94.2

65

0.375

212

89.5

316

95.7

80

0.316

229

-0.7

7

1.4

15

-0.059

17