Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Over The Back? What Over The Back? [Or: Minute-Adjusted Tempo-Free Rebounding Leaders]

[EDIT: I made a mistake in the original description of how to calculate OffReb+. I originally wrote that I multiplied by 70.2, but that’s incorrect. 70.2 is the average total rebounds in a game, for both teams, so I actually multiplied by half that (35.1) when I did the calculations. I just had a senior moment when I wrote it out.  Sorry about the confusion. The reason I noticed in the first place is that Mike Rogers over at The Only Colors has a couple nice posts up that expand on this idea (here and here).  Highly worth checking out.  I noticed his numbers didn’t jive with mine, and that’s how I spotted the error in the text.  So, thanks Mike!]

In case you missed it, Tennessee’s Brian Williams made what ESPN calls a “falling over-the-back buzzer beater” last night against Georgia. Bulldog Chris Barnes did a good job of boxing out, but Williams simply reached over his shoulder and snatched ball. The play reinforced a thought that’s been rolling around in my head: that instead of merely praising players with high offensive rebounding rates (whether measured by raw numbers or by offensive rebounding percentage [OR%]), we ought to be praising those that can do it without fouling. It’s not that the fouls themselves are so detrimental – if a player dials back the physicality enough to prevent the foul, he likely prevents the offensive rebound as well. But racking up fouls on high-risk offensive boards leads to reduced minutes for a player that provides at least some value in the form of rebounds.

Take a look at the current top ten offensive rebounders, by OR%, along with their fouls committed per 40 minutes (FC/40). Over half of these guys would foul out if asked to play play 40 minutes:


Hey, look – Brian Williams!

I thought it would be interesting to look at top ten that takes minutes played into account. This should penalize the foulers, plus it should knock out any small sample size wonders.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Project Defensive Score Sheet: Kansas@Baylor

[Check out the introduction to Project Defensive Score Sheet for info on what the numbers below mean.]

Let’s start with the chart (click to enlarge).  Notes after the break.


Sunday, January 16, 2011

Project Defensive Score Sheet: Nebraska@Kansas

[For background info, see my original Project Defensive Score Sheet post.]

When I started this project, and saw that the Jayhawks’ first three opponents were Michigan, Iowa State and Nebraska, I figured the defensive charting would be what helped me stay interested in what I assumed would be fairly easy victories.  Not so much.

Nebraska’s first half defense was the most impressive I’ve seen from any unit in the few games that I’ve charted.  The help was coming at the exact right time, and recovery back to shooters was great.  To be honest, I’m not sure whether Kansas made adjustments at halftime, or if Nebraska just didn’t quite play as well, but my subjective “Wow, these guys are good” feeling wasn’t nearly as strong in half two.  I guess allowing 4 straight dunks will do that.

Here are the numbers (click to enlarge).  Notes after the break.