Prediction System Bracket Challenge: Final Standings

I’ll have another post later showing what the standings would be under some alternate scoring methods, but for now here’s how it looks with the default 1/2/4/8/16/32 system:

For info on each of the entries, check out my original post.

My Similarity Scores system is up in second place, basically because myself and Martin Manley were the only ones to pick West Virginia in the Final Four.  Pomeroy should probably really be in second, as his ratings had Duke on top every day except the one I used to fill out the bracket.  And both Yet Another Basketball Blog’s ratings and mine are derived by tweaking Pomeroy’s ratings, so Pomeroy is the true winner today.

Prediction System Bracket Challenge: Rd 2 Update

In case you missed it, here’s the post that sets the scene.  And here (below the chart) are some things you might want to take into account, along with a grain of salt, when viewing these standings.

Not many surprises here – the same systems that did well in round 1 did well in round 2, and Sagarin- or Pomeroy-based systems occupy 4 of the top 7 spots.  Yet Another Basketball Blog’s champ pick of Duke (which, remember, would have been Pomeroy’s as well if I’d have filled out the bracket literally ANY day other than the day before the tournament) is looking like it may be what ends up setting that bracket apart from the rest, as I believe they’ll do a better job of getting by hobbled Purdue than Texas A&M did.

I’m excited to see my Similarity Scores tied with – and having more future possible points than – Pomeroy, though this obviously means nothing in the grand scheme of things.

I mentioned it in the original post, but I’ll state it again – this scoring system overemphasizes the last couple rounds.  So at the conclusion of the tourney, I’ll look at the standings with few other round weightings, and see who comes out on top in each one.

Hope you enjoyed the crazy opening weekend.  It may never be the same…

Prediction System Bracket Challenge: Rd 1 Update

As mentioned previously, I set up a group on ESPN’s Tournament Challenge to track how the bracket predictions from about a dozen different ratings/prediction system are doing.  Here’s a quick review of where everything stands after Friday.

As you can see, everybody picked Kansas except for Yet Another Basketball Blog’s cupcakes-removed efficiency ratings.  Some of you might be saying “Wait!  I thought Duke was #1 in Pomeroy!”  Well, you’re right.  But they weren’t on Wednesday evening, when I filled out the brackets - Kansas was in front by about 0.001.  I’m pretty sure that’s the only day in the last month where that was true, but this is a good example of the fact that rankings and ratings are considerably different.  Pomeroy’s ratings say that Kansas and Duke are essentially equal, and both are considerably ahead of the pack.  If you only look at the rankings, all you see (today) is that the top three are Duke, Kansas, and Wisconsin.  Quite a difference.

At any rate, the biggest surprises in the above table have to be that the RPI is tied for first, while the bracket based on Vegas Watch’s attempt to mimic the sportsbook markets is tied for last.  However, look at the PPR (Possible Points Remaining) – Vegas Watch is actually tied for first.  That’s kind of the whole point of his approach – a lot of these first round games are tossups, and it’s just luck whether you pick them right, which is why you need to keep in mind the overall odds of a team advancing to a certain round, instead of merely looking at their most likely matchup at that point.

The fact that Team Rankings.com and two of Sagarin’s ratings (and specifically NOT the Elo rating) are tied at the top, is definitely not a surprise, as these guys plus Pomeroy are what I’d consider the Big Three of college basketball ratings.

I’m happy to report that my Similarity Scores system is tied with Pomeroy (which is the foundation for the similarity analysis) - though we’ve gotten there via differing picks, and Pomeroy has one more Sweet 16 team alive.

My comrade over at UFR isn’t going to be quite as pleased, as the Martin Manley rankings are only 1 game from last, and have the fewest potential future points.

In the grand scheme of things, the first round isn’t too important, so I’ll be more curious to see how things stand after the whole weekend is over.  I anticipate a comeback by Vegas Watch – and of course I’m rooting for my Similarity Scores to pass Pomeroy.

Prediction System Bracket Challenge

As a fun (and non-statistically significant) way to pit my similarity-based predictions against other prediction/rating systems, I created an ESPN Bracket Challenge group – System Smackdown.  I filled out brackets based on the ratings listed below – for each game, I simply picked the higher rated team, unless otherwise noted.  If you know of any more ratings or predictions that should be included, drop me a line.

The Competitors

• Pomeroy ratings
• Sagarin’s overall rating
• Sagarin’s Elo (wins) rating
• Sagarin’s Pure Points (predictive) rating
• NCAA RPI
• Higher Seeds (Final Four decided by RPI)
• TeamRankings.com Power Ranking
• AP Top 25 vote count (ties broken by higher seed)
• ESPN Users (most popular picks)
• Martin Manley of Upon Further Review
• Massey’s consensus of about a billion ratings
• Vegas Watch (using his regional previews, I placed the team with the best odds of winning the championship in the top spot, then the team with the next best odds of making it to the championship game, then the teams with the next-best odds of making it to the final four, etc)
• my Similarity Predictions
• [EDIT: After I posted this, I found this wonderful post at Yet Another Basketball Blog, and decided to include his makeshift ratings as well.]
• [EDIT #2: The Bradley-Terry method, from The Only Colors, is now included.]
• [EDIT #3: One last addition - the bracket from the WhatIf Sports simulation.]

Hopefully, I’ll have time to post a score update after every round.  If not, I should at least be able to manage every weekend.

I should note that I didn’t realize – until after I took the time to fill out all the brackets – that I can’t change the scoring system, so I’m stuck with the default 1-2-4-8-16-32.  That overvalues the later rounds, in my opinion, so I’ll probably end up showing what the standings would have been with various other point systems.

Good luck to all the (unbeknownst to them) competitors, and may the best system win!