Prediction System Bracket Challenge

As a fun (and non-statistically significant) way to pit my similarity-based predictions against other prediction/rating systems, I created an ESPN Bracket Challenge group – System Smackdown.  I filled out brackets based on the ratings listed below – for each game, I simply picked the higher rated team, unless otherwise noted.  If you know of any more ratings or predictions that should be included, drop me a line.

The Competitors

• Pomeroy ratings
• Sagarin’s overall rating
• Sagarin’s Elo (wins) rating
• Sagarin’s Pure Points (predictive) rating
• NCAA RPI
• Higher Seeds (Final Four decided by RPI)
• TeamRankings.com Power Ranking
• AP Top 25 vote count (ties broken by higher seed)
• ESPN Users (most popular picks)
• Martin Manley of Upon Further Review
• Massey’s consensus of about a billion ratings
• Vegas Watch (using his regional previews, I placed the team with the best odds of winning the championship in the top spot, then the team with the next best odds of making it to the championship game, then the teams with the next-best odds of making it to the final four, etc)
• my Similarity Predictions
• [EDIT: After I posted this, I found this wonderful post at Yet Another Basketball Blog, and decided to include his makeshift ratings as well.]
• [EDIT #2: The Bradley-Terry method, from The Only Colors, is now included.]
• [EDIT #3: One last addition - the bracket from the WhatIf Sports simulation.]

Hopefully, I’ll have time to post a score update after every round.  If not, I should at least be able to manage every weekend.

I should note that I didn’t realize – until after I took the time to fill out all the brackets – that I can’t change the scoring system, so I’m stuck with the default 1-2-4-8-16-32.  That overvalues the later rounds, in my opinion, so I’ll probably end up showing what the standings would have been with various other point systems.

Good luck to all the (unbeknownst to them) competitors, and may the best system win!