Friday, March 19, 2010

Similarity Predictions: 2nd Round (Saturday)

Just a quick note on which games my similarity system differs from the straight Pomeroy predictions.  Let’s start with the summary chart of all 8 games, and then I’ll include notes on a couple of them.

SIMILARITY vs. POMEROY (diff. of at least 10%)

GAME

POMEROY

SIMILARITY

Villanova
-
St. Mary's
Nova +4 (64%)
Nova +2 (57%)
Butler
-
Murray St
But +3.5 (65%)
But +5.5 (71%)
Tennessee
-
Ohio
Tenn +8 (79%)
Tenn +5 (70%)
Kansas
-
Norther Iowa
KU +8.5 (84%)
KU +7 (78%)
Baylor
-
Old Dominion
Bay +3.5 (66%)
Bay +4 (67%)
New Mexico
-
Washington
Wash +2.5 (59%)
NM +0.5 (52%)
Kansas St
-
BYU
BYU +0.5 (52%)
KSU +7.5 (74%)
Kentucky
-
Wake Forest
UK +7.5 (78%)
UK +6 (72%)

Most of these are pretty close to Pomeroy, with the general trend being that the games should be a little closer than expected.  I covered Kansas State vs. BYU in detail over at UFR, so you can head over there for analysis.  The New Mexico-Washington game has a different winner with my system, and that prediction is mostly due to the fact that Washington has underperformed on offense when facing teams like New Mexico, while the reverse is true for the Lobos.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Post a Comment