Tickets Punched: #13 - #14

Part … I don’t know, 5? … of a series comparing the offenses and defenses of current auto-bid teams to recent major conference teams, in order to get a feel for their style of play.

If you’ve managed to find this, you’re deep enough into the college basketball blogosphere that it’s impossible for you not to have heard about Anthony Johnson’s remarkable performance last night, in which he scored 34 points in the second half – including his team’s last 11 – to lead Montana past Weber State.  Did you realize there was another auto-bid locked up last night?  Quinnipiac was upset by some guy named…

ROBERT MORRIS

Robert Morris is one of the few teams where their FTR is more correlated with their offensive efficiency than TO% or OReb% is.  It’s all well and good to get to the line often, but they depend on free throws to win.  In games where they took at least half as many FT’s as FG’s, they went 16-1, while in games where they shot fewer than half as many, they went 7-10.  I thought there might be a cause and effect problem here, as teams that are ahead get fouled, so I looked at the same thing for team with a similar record and Pomeroy rating (Western Carolina). They were also better in the high-FTR games, but not to the same extent – 6-2 vs. 16-7.  They should be hoping they don’t draw Syracuse, Kentucky, or Ohio State in the first round.



Wow, more free throws.  They’ll be one CInderella I’ll be rooting against, just to make sure I don’t have to sit through a second agonizingly slow game, full of free throws and devoid of flow.  And, Selection Committee, if you’re listening – please please please don’t give us a Villanova vs. Robert Morris game.

MONTANA

Derek Raivio … O.J. Mayo … Jerryd Bayless … Anthony Johnson?  With the mandatory caveat that he plays in a weaker conference, Johnson’s tempo-free stat line is basically an average of the leading scorers for three of the comps above (numbers in green indicate player was in top 200 nationally):




I’m obviously not saying he’s as good as these players, but I’ll be looking forward to finding out if he’s this year’s Stephen Curry.



These are a bunch of “Mostly Man” teams, according to Pomeroy’s Defensive Fingerprint.  Montana’s guards should be able to pressure the perimeter, knowing they are backed up by the unsung vice-hero of last night’s game, 6’11” Brian Qvale (6 blocks and 14 rebounds).  But strangely, they allow more 3’s than average, and teams make them at a decent clip.  They also allow very few assists.  It’s almost like they have players defending everywhere except the guy with the ball on the perimeter.