The Journey Counts

There are articles every year – some by me – that look at qualities that have defined past Final Four teams, champions, upset victims, etc.  These usually use end-of-year stats, because that’s what’s readily available for past teams.  But we obviously don’t have access to end-of-year stats when the tourney begins.  So I thought I’d take a look at how well pre-tourney efficiency numbers match up with the final values, to see how much a team’s performance in the postseason can change our historical perception of them.  I’ll be using Pomeroy’s data from the day after Selection Sunday – after the conference tournaments, but before the NCAA/NIT/CBI/CIT/WTF/ETC.

First, the Final Four teams. Remember, for the changes in defense and rank, negative is good:

Butler’s defense went from very good to elite over the course of 6 games, and I don’t think you’ll find anyone that would argue that the ratings bump wasn’t deserved – and obvious.  What might not have been so obvious was that Duke’s offense switched to a higher gear during the tournament, with their offensive efficiency improving almost as much as Butler’s D.  Michigan State’s offense improved, and their defense declined, and the result was a slightly more balanced team.  West Virginia was basically the opposite of Michigan State.

Now let’s look at aggregate stats for all the NCAA tournament teams (the only ones we really care about):

The average magnitude of change for both offensive and defensive efficiency is about 2/3 of a point, and about 5 ranking spots.  And some teams improved or declined by up to 35 spots in the rankings.  So be careful eliminating someone from your list of contenders just because they’re ranked 15th in something instead of 5th.

Finally, for reference, here are the changes for all teams in the tourney (hope this formats well):

CHANGES IN EFFICIENCY DURING NCAA TOURNAMENT
	BEFORE						AFTER						CHANGE
Team	Off	Rnk	Def	Rnk	Pyth	Rnk	Off	Rnk	Def	Rnk	Pyth	Rnk	Off	Rnk	Def	Rnk	Pyth	Rnk
Duke	121.5	1	85.9	4	0.982	1	123.5	1	85.9	4	0.985	1	2.0	0	0.0	0	0.003	0
Kansas	121.4	2	86.1	5	0.981	2	121.5	2	87.1	8	0.979	2	0.1	0	1.0	3	-0.002	0
Kentucky	115.5	18	87.7	10	0.960	6	116.1	15	86.3	6	0.968	3	0.6	-3	-1.3	-4	0.008	-3
Syracuse	117.9	9	89.1	20	0.962	5	118.0	8	89.0	18	0.963	4	0.2	-1	-0.1	-2	0.001	-1
Ohio St.	119.0	7	89.8	22	0.962	4	118.6	7	90.2	24	0.959	5	-0.3	0	0.4	2	-0.003	1
Baylor	119.6	5	92.7	52	0.949	12	120.4	3	91.7	34	0.958	6	0.9	-2	-1.0	-18	0.009	-6
Kansas St.	115.8	16	88.9	19	0.955	9	116.6	13	88.9	17	0.957	7	0.8	-3	0.1	-2	0.003	-2
West Virginia	117.5	11	90.0	24	0.955	8	117.0	11	89.4	22	0.957	8	-0.4	0	-0.6	-2	0.001	0
Wisconsin	116.5	13	87.3	7	0.965	3	115.6	17	89.1	19	0.952	9	-0.8	4	1.8	12	-0.012	6
Brigham Young	117.4	12	89.6	21	0.957	7	117.1	10	90.7	27	0.950	10	-0.3	-2	1.1	6	-0.008	3
Maryland	119.1	6	91.7	40	0.953	10	119.3	5	92.7	50	0.947	11	0.2	-1	1.0	10	-0.005	1
Butler	109.6	55	88.4	15	0.922	26	110.2	50	86.2	5	0.944	12	0.6	-5	-2.3	-10	0.023	-14
Georgetown	117.6	10	90.9	33	0.951	11	117.4	9	92.6	47	0.938	13	-0.2	-1	1.8	14	-0.012	2
Xavier	115.8	15	92.7	50	0.928	22	116.3	14	92.0	39	0.937	14	0.5	-1	-0.7	-11	0.009	-8
California	121.0	3	95.6	81	0.938	14	120.1	4	95.1	73	0.936	15	-0.9	1	-0.5	-8	-0.002	1
Purdue	109.8	49	86.4	6	0.940	13	108.3	70	85.8	3	0.936	16	-1.5	21	-0.6	-3	-0.004	3
Texas A&M	111.9	39	89.9	23	0.925	23	111.9	38	88.8	14	0.935	17	0.0	-1	-1.1	-9	0.010	-6
Texas	113.4	26	90.2	26	0.933	17	113.5	25	90.2	25	0.933	18	0.1	-1	0.0	-1	0.000	1
Missouri	109.8	50	87.8	12	0.928	21	111.3	43	88.8	13	0.931	19	1.5	-7	1.0	1	0.002	-2
Clemson	110.4	47	87.7	9	0.934	16	110.9	44	88.9	15	0.928	20	0.6	-3	1.2	6	-0.006	4
Villanova	118.7	8	93.9	62	0.937	15	116.6	12	94.0	62	0.923	21	-2.1	4	0.2	0	-0.014	6
Temple	107.5	77	85.7	3	0.931	18	107.8	75	87.0	7	0.922	22	0.3	-2	1.3	4	-0.009	4
Michigan St.	112.0	38	90.3	27	0.923	24	112.9	28	91.1	30	0.922	23	0.9	-10	0.8	3	-0.001	-1
Florida St.	105.2	119	83.9	1	0.931	19	104.6	130	84.5	1	0.921	24	-0.5	11	0.6	0	-0.010	5
Utah St.	116.4	14	93.0	54	0.930	20	115.6	18	93.7	58	0.918	25	-0.9	4	0.7	4	-0.012	5
Georgia Tech	109.5	57	88.7	17	0.919	27	109.1	62	88.6	12	0.917	27	-0.4	5	-0.1	-5	-0.002	0
Tennessee	106.2	99	87.3	8	0.904	35	108.9	64	88.5	11	0.916	28	2.8	-35	1.1	3	0.012	-7
Northern Iowa	107.3	81	87.9	13	0.909	32	109.3	61	88.9	16	0.915	29	1.9	-20	1.0	3	0.006	-3
Washington	112.6	32	91.5	38	0.916	29	112.2	36	91.3	31	0.915	30	-0.4	4	-0.2	-7	-0.001	1
Pittsburgh	111.7	41	90.9	34	0.915	30	111.5	40	90.7	26	0.915	31	-0.2	-1	-0.2	-8	0.000	1
Minnesota	114.1	23	92.1	43	0.922	25	112.9	29	92.1	40	0.912	32	-1.2	6	0.0	-3	-0.010	7
Marquette	114.3	22	92.6	48	0.919	28	114.6	22	93.6	57	0.911	33	0.3	0	1.0	9	-0.008	5
Old Dominion	107.9	72	88.5	16	0.907	33	107.5	82	88.4	10	0.904	34	-0.4	10	-0.1	-6	-0.003	1
Vanderbilt	114.0	25	94.1	64	0.901	36	113.7	24	93.8	60	0.901	35	-0.3	-1	-0.3	-4	0.000	-1
Texas El Paso	107.5	78	88.3	14	0.905	34	107.1	88	89.3	21	0.891	37	-0.4	10	1.0	7	-0.015	3
Notre Dame	119.8	4	99.3	140	0.897	38	118.8	6	99.1	132	0.890	38	-1.0	2	-0.2	-8	-0.007	0
Nevada Las Vegas	109.5	58	90.7	29	0.897	37	110.0	51	91.9	38	0.887	39	0.5	-7	1.2	9	-0.010	2
Oklahoma St.	112.2	37	94.0	63	0.885	44	112.7	31	94.2	63	0.887	40	0.5	-6	0.2	0	0.003	-4
San Diego St.	111.0	43	92.1	42	0.895	40	110.5	48	92.6	45	0.885	41	-0.4	5	0.5	3	-0.010	1
St. Mary's	114.9	19	95.7	82	0.891	43	114.9	20	96.3	88	0.884	42	-0.1	1	0.6	6	-0.008	-1
Louisville	114.9	20	95.3	77	0.896	39	113.8	23	95.4	79	0.884	43	-1.1	3	0.1	2	-0.012	4
Florida	112.3	34	94.9	70	0.874	49	112.6	32	94.9	67	0.877	45	0.3	-2	0.0	-3	0.004	-4
Richmond	108.4	67	91.2	36	0.879	48	108.8	67	91.9	37	0.875	48	0.5	0	0.7	1	-0.005	0
Murray St.	108.3	68	92.3	45	0.863	57	108.2	71	91.7	35	0.870	50	-0.1	3	-0.5	-10	0.007	-7
Cornell	113.3	28	99.2	139	0.822	66	115.9	16	98.5	117	0.867	52	2.6	-12	-0.7	-22	0.045	-14
New Mexico	114.3	21	96.0	87	0.882	47	113.1	27	96.4	90	0.863	54	-1.2	6	0.4	3	-0.019	7
Gonzaga	110.8	44	94.4	67	0.864	56	110.6	47	94.7	66	0.856	57	-0.2	3	0.4	-1	-0.008	1
Wake Forest	106.6	96	90.2	25	0.873	50	106.5	96	91.4	32	0.852	58	-0.1	0	1.3	7	-0.021	8
Siena	108.4	66	93.6	59	0.844	58	107.7	77	93.2	54	0.841	59	-0.7	11	-0.4	-5	-0.003	1
Wofford	102.8	149	93.1	56	0.756	87	102.9	148	92.2	41	0.779	79	0.1	-1	-0.9	-15	0.023	-8
Houston	111.7	40	101.0	165	0.762	85	111.5	41	101.3	174	0.750	89	-0.2	1	0.3	9	-0.012	4
Ohio	105.9	105	97.8	109	0.716	100	107.6	78	98.1	111	0.745	93	1.7	-27	0.3	2	0.029	-7
Sam Houston St.	109.6	56	101.6	178	0.706	102	108.5	68	100.2	154	0.715	101	-1.1	12	-1.4	-24	0.009	-1
Montana	105.7	110	98.4	121	0.696	105	105.2	119	98.2	114	0.686	107	-0.6	9	-0.2	-7	-0.010	2
New Mexico St.	110.5	46	104.1	222	0.665	115	110.6	46	104.1	224	0.669	113	0.1	0	-0.1	2	0.004	-2
Vermont	103.6	140	99.1	135	0.624	129	103.4	141	99.1	135	0.619	132	-0.2	1	0.0	0	-0.006	3
East Tennessee St.	99.0	196	96.1	88	0.583	142	99.4	195	96.5	93	0.583	142	0.4	-1	0.4	5	0.000	0
Oakland	106.2	98	103.1	212	0.584	141	105.5	110	103.1	214	0.567	146	-0.7	12	0.0	2	-0.017	5
UC Santa Barbara	98.6	209	96.9	99	0.551	152	98.2	219	96.7	95	0.544	154	-0.5	10	-0.2	-4	-0.007	2
Morgan St.	104.0	136	102.0	190	0.556	149	103.0	147	101.8	184	0.536	158	-1.0	11	-0.2	-6	-0.021	9
North Texas	102.0	157	101.7	180	0.509	169	102.2	159	101.9	187	0.509	168	0.3	2	0.3	7	0.000	-1
Lehigh	104.2	133	105.1	242	0.474	180	104.9	125	104.8	236	0.503	171	0.8	-8	-0.3	-6	0.029	-9
Robert Morris	98.9	200	100.3	154	0.458	188	98.8	204	99.2	140	0.488	176	-0.1	4	-1.1	-14	0.030	-12
Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.4	307	97.9	111	0.286	238	91.2	302	97.0	97	0.330	222	0.8	-5	-0.9	-14	0.044	-16
Winthrop	90.2	309	94.2	65	0.375	212	89.5	316	95.7	80	0.316	229	-0.7	7	1.4	15	-0.059	17