Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Defensive Score Sheet: Kansas State@Kansas

[As always, check out my first Project Defensive Score Sheet post for information on what this all mean. Also, shout out to Ray Floriani for taking a cue from by good/bad shots tracking, and doing it for St. Bonaventure.]

Sorry this is so late. I promise tonight’s game against Texas Tech will be up tomorrow. Here’s the table. My thoughts are after the break.

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Before I get to the notes on the score sheet, let me point out something a bit misleading. Jesse Newell of KUSports.com broke down the points per possession of both teams by half:

First Half
KU — 1.06 PPP
KSU — 0.57 PPP
(35 possessions)

Second Half
KU — 1.39 PPP
KSU — 1.18 PPP
(38 possessions)

At first glance, Kansas’s defensive performance in the first half looks amazing, and you figure they let off the gas in the second half. But look at KSU’s shooting by half, broken down into good looks and bad looks, paying special attention to the good looks from 3-point range in the first half:

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A huge portion of the difference between the Wildcats’ efficiency in the to halves just comes down to whether or not they hit their open shots. If they shoot a reasonable percentage on their first half good looks, then they score, say, 12 more points, and their PPP is around 0.9. That’s still not great, but it’s a world away from 0.57. Over the course of a season, I imagine this type of thing evens out. But not in one half of play.

Now, check out the same chart for Kansas. What I want you to focus on here is the number of good looks compared to bad looks, for each half:

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Kansas State’s defensive just collapsed in the second half, giving Kansas no resistance whatsoever. If they’d have kept up their effort from half one, maybe they’d have had a chance.

OK, notes on the score sheet…

  • I hate to pick on a role player, but Jordan Henriquez-Roberts enlarged Kansas State’s defensive rating almost as much as he did my chart. He was astoundingly bad, allowing 5 2PFG’s and 4 FTA’s (of which only one was made), while stopping nothing, in only 7 minutes. That’s right, if Marcus Morris and Thomas Robinson had hit their free throws, he would have personally allowed 2 points per minute. Did I mention he also turned it over twice? Frank Martin sat Curtis Martin in favor of this guy?
  • On the other hand, Martin didn’t sit Rodney McGruder or Jamar Samuels. I doubt it’s a coincidence that these two guys graded out as the best defenders, ignoring the garbage time guys.
  • In my ongoing test to see if the more impressive defensive team ends up with more of their forced turnovers (FTO) coming from team efforts, here are the numbers from this game. For Kansas, 5 of 15 (33%) of their turnovers were solo efforts. For KSU, that number was 7 of 14 (50%). Once again, team defense FTW, literally.
  • Once again, Brady Morningstar’s defense is really tough to evaluate. He ends up with a bad rating above, but his man only ended a possession about 6% of the time, meaning he probably played good off-the-ball defense, to deny his man the ball.
  • Will Spradling, if this game is any indication, loves to try to draw charges, which leads to him also getting called for blocking. If one more of those blocks ends up being called a charge, his defensive rating drops to about 114, which would put him as KSU’s best non-garbage defender.
  • The Jayhawk starters were the team’s best 5 defenders. I’m sure Bill Self loves that, and expects it.

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