Project Defensive Score Sheet: Kansas@Baylor

[Check out the introduction to Project Defensive Score Sheet for info on what the numbers below mean.]

Let’s start with the chart (click to enlarge).  Notes after the break.

All I Want For Christmas Is An Offensive Rebounder

In the spirit of the season, I thought I’d dole out some gifts to 5 teams that have some glaring weaknesses.

PITTSBURGH

Pitt has the #1 offense in the nation (all ranks throughout the article are from the Pomeroy ratings), but ranks only 43rd in defense, which is a pretty big red flag, in terms of contending for a national title.  Their main problems are a lack of turnovers (234th) and steals (246th), 3pt defense (223rd), and few blocks (114th).

Santa’s Bringing Them – Ayron Hardy, Jacksonville.  The  6’5” senior was named A-Sun Defensive Player of the Year in 2008-09.  He averages a steal every 20 opponent possessions (13th), blocks 4.7% of opponent shots (242nd), and helps anchor a Jacksonville defense that holds opponents to only 29.1% from deep (41st).  The fact that he’s an extremely efficient role player on offense (130.2 ORtg, 16.7 %Poss) is a sweet bonus.

Similarity Preview: Duke Vs. Baylor

[NOTE: Cross posted over at UFR.]

Well, the St. Mary’s game didn’t go at all as expected, with the Gaels not really putting up much of a fight. There’s no way the same thing happens with Duke. Let’s take a look at what the game will be like when the Blue Devils have the ball:

One of the knocks against Duke the last few years has been that they lack toughness and size, but this year’s team is better in most of the toughness/size categories. They’re 7^th nationally in effective height, and 8^th in OReb%, both of which are the highest they’ve ranked since Pomeroy started keeping track. The one area where they still seem to suffer is 2P shooting percentage, where they’re ranked 198^th This is partly due to getting their shots blocked at a high rate – 209^th nationally – which means Udoh may be in for a big defensive game.

Duke has subpar shooting for a supposedly elite offense, but they make up for it with all those offensive rebounds, and by rarely committing turnovers. Those happen to be Baylor’s defensive weaknesses, so the Blue Devils will be able to play exactly the kind of game they want. I expect them to do well offensively. Baylor will need to solve Duke’s defense in order to win:

In keeping with the theme, this year’s Duke defense is tougher as well – this is their lowest 2P% allowed since 2005, and their best defensive rebounding in the Pomeroy Era (2004-present). They’ve paired this with their usual excellent perimeter defense (ranked 1^st in 3P% against, and 8^th in 3PA/FGA), and the result is the 3^rd-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country. However, despite being improved on the defensive boards, they’re still only 120^th nationally – and offensive rebounding is one of Baylor’s biggest strengths on offense (they rank 15^th). They’ll probably need a very big game on the offensive boards if they want to win.

To Baylor’s advantage is the fact that they’re not over-reliant on three pointers. Duke can shut teams down from outside, so it’s good that Baylor has a balanced inside/outside attack, ranking in the top 25 in both 3P% and 2P%, and right at average in 3PA/FGA. Duke will try to shut them down on the perimeter, but Baylor’s guards should be able to drive or get it to Udoh or Acy in the post. If the Baylor bigs can get the job done against Brian Zoubek, the Bears have a chance.

Vegas has Duke as a 4 point favorite, and my system basically agrees. The straight efficiency stats show Duke as 5.5 point favorites, but the similar opponents analysis shows that Baylor has done better than expected offensively against teams whose defenses are similar to Duke’s. I see no reason to disagree, so I’ll go with the similarity prediction here, and say that Baylor should be able to hang close, but Duke is still the clear favorite.

Similarity Predictions: Elite 8

Figured I should get these up before the games start this afternoon.

As I mentioned in the KSU-Butler preview, I think the prediction for that game is skewed by the early season numbers.  Butler’s playing better than they were then.  If I look at only games from this calendar year, then the Similarity prediction pretty much agrees with Pomeroy and Vegas.

I should get a Duke-Baylor preview done this afternoon, and get it posted here and at UFR.

Similarity Preview: Baylor vs. St. Mary's

Just a quick post to relay info that I forgot about yesterday: my preview of Baylor vs. St. Mary's is posted over at UFR.  To make a long story short, the system predicts a very close game, with a slight advantage to Baylor.  Head over to UFR if you want more details!

Similarity Scores: Big 12

I introduced team similarity scores yesterday (summary at UFR, complete description here), and today I’ll be applying them to the Big 12.  If you’re here via UFR, you’ve already seen the lists for Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri, so you can skip down to Texas.  Everybody else, dig in.

2010 KANSAS

2010 Kansas - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	NCAA W's
94	2007	Kansas	3
94	2005	Louisville	4
93	2008	Kansas	6
93	2004	Cincinnati	1
93	2004	Connecticut	6
92	2008	Memphis	5
92	2007	Texas A&M	2
92	2004	Gonzaga	1
92	2009	Gonzaga	2
92	2006	Florida	6

The 2004/9 Gonzaga teams are on this list partly because they have great raw stats from beating up on the WCC.  Ditto for 2004 Cincy, as they were in Conference USA back then.

As you'd expect, there are a couple Kansas teams on here, as Bill Self has a distinct style that he's installed in Lawrence: great interior defense with lots of steals and blocks (see 2004 UConn, 2008 Memphis) and great shooting and good rebounding on offense (see 2006 Florida, 2005 Louisville).  What may be surprising to some is that last year's 2009 Kansas not in the top 10.  That's because this year's team has improved almost literally across the board.

Also, it's nice to see 3 champions and 2 other Final Four teams on there (and 2005 North Carolina was close, at 91).  You might think any team rated this highly will automatically have a bunch of great comps, but that's not quite true.  One of the closest teams in that dataset to 2010 KU, by Pythag rating, is 2005 Duke: