Defensive Score Sheet: Missouri@Kansas

If you’re unfamiliar with this series, check out my first Project Defensive Score Sheet post. This one’s a day late, but these numbers are pretty ugly, so I doubt anybody was exactly giddy with anticipation.

Let’s start with the table:

Similarity Predictions: 2nd Round (Sunday)

I'll start with the prediction chart for all of Sunday's games, then get to the previews for the Big 12 games, which are also cross posted over at Upon Further Review.  If you are unfamiliar with my similarity predictions, read about the methods here.  Also, sorry about the ugly tables - I tried a new method of posting them, and it didn't work so well.  You live, you learn.

SIMILARITY vs. POMEROY
GAME			POMEROY	SIMILARITY
Syracuse	-	Gonzaga	Syr +8.5 (78%)	Syr +11 (84%)
Ohio St	-	Georgia Tech	OSU +4.5 (68%)	OSU +7.5 (77%)
Maryland	-	Michigan St	MD +3.5 (64%)	MD +9 (81%)
West Virginia	-	Missouri	WVU +2.5 (60%)	MU +3 (62%)
Wisconsin	-	Cornell	Wisc +8.5 (82%)	Corn +2.5 (61%)
Pittsburgh	-	Xavier	Xav +1.5 (56%)	Xav +2 (57%)
Purdue	-	Texas A&M	Pur +0.5 (51%)	Pur +4.5 (69%)
Purdue w/o Hummel	-	Texas A&M	Pur +0.5 (51%)	A&M +3.5 (79%)
Duke	-	California	Duke +8 (78%)	Duke +9.5 (82%)

Similarity Previews: KC-Area Teams

[NOTE: Some of this is cross posted over at Upon Further Review, a great KC-area sports blog.]

With the success of the similarity predictions so far (WARNING: extremely small sample size):



I figured I’d continue down this path, at least until I start to see some bad results.  I’ll be doing a comprehensive preview of the first round games that highlights the instances where the similarity prediction dovetails from the standard Pomeroy prediction, but first I’m going to tackle the match ups involving teams that are of interest to UFR readers.  Any system that pegs the KU and KSU games as anything other than huge mismatches probably involves throwing things off the Empire State Building, so I won’t spend much time on those games.  The more interesting game is Missouri-Clemson, so that’s the one I’ll start with, and focus on.

Similarity Scores: Big 12

I introduced team similarity scores yesterday (summary at UFR, complete description here), and today I’ll be applying them to the Big 12.  If you’re here via UFR, you’ve already seen the lists for Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri, so you can skip down to Texas.  Everybody else, dig in.

2010 KANSAS

2010 Kansas - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	NCAA W's
94	2007	Kansas	3
94	2005	Louisville	4
93	2008	Kansas	6
93	2004	Cincinnati	1
93	2004	Connecticut	6
92	2008	Memphis	5
92	2007	Texas A&M	2
92	2004	Gonzaga	1
92	2009	Gonzaga	2
92	2006	Florida	6

The 2004/9 Gonzaga teams are on this list partly because they have great raw stats from beating up on the WCC.  Ditto for 2004 Cincy, as they were in Conference USA back then.

As you'd expect, there are a couple Kansas teams on here, as Bill Self has a distinct style that he's installed in Lawrence: great interior defense with lots of steals and blocks (see 2004 UConn, 2008 Memphis) and great shooting and good rebounding on offense (see 2006 Florida, 2005 Louisville).  What may be surprising to some is that last year's 2009 Kansas not in the top 10.  That's because this year's team has improved almost literally across the board.

Also, it's nice to see 3 champions and 2 other Final Four teams on there (and 2005 North Carolina was close, at 91).  You might think any team rated this highly will automatically have a bunch of great comps, but that's not quite true.  One of the closest teams in that dataset to 2010 KU, by Pythag rating, is 2005 Duke: