Similarity Scores: Title Contenders, Part 2

Now that we've seen the historical comps for the current AP Top 10, let's take a look at the 2010 comps for the 6 teams that I placed in the top tiers at the end of the last post: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Villanova, and Ohio State. [Again, data is from the games through March 2, 2010.]

When I first looked at 2010 comps over at UFR, the most similar team to Kansas was Kentucky, which made for a great storyline.  Since then, however, I've updated the data, and Kentucky has dropped a touch.  They're still in the top ten, but not at the #1 spot.

2010 Kansas - 2010 Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM
91	2010	Maryland
91	2010	Minnesota
91	2010	Baylor
90	2010	Kentucky
89	2010	Texas
89	2010	Brigham Young
89	2010	Duke
89	2010	Syracuse
88	2010	Ohio St.
88	2010	Georgetown

Maryland is, unfortunately, a team I don't know much about this year.  However, I'll get a chance to watch them tomorrow while I'm wishing I could watch Kansas State @ Kansas.  Still, a score of 90 for Kentucky is reasonably similar, and they're the most similar of the elite teams.

2010 Kentucky - 2010 Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM
93	2010	Texas
91	2010	Florida St.
91	2010	Georgia Tech
90	2010	Kansas
90	2010	Connecticut
90	2010	Kansas St.
90	2010	Baylor
89	2010	Michigan St.
89	2010	San Diego St.
89	2010	Wake Forest

Apparently Kentucky belongs in the Big 12 or ACC this year.  I guess that's where they play defense this year (only leagues with multiple teams in the top 10 of adjusted defensive efficiency).  The highest elite team here is Kansas (unless you want to include Texas) at 90, so our Kansas-Kentucky mirror image theory still works to a certain extent.

2010 Syracuse - 2010 Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM
87	2010	Minnesota
87	2010	Kansas
85	2010	Georgetown
85	2010	Ohio St.
84	2010	Michigan St.
84	2010	Georgia Tech
84	2010	Murray St.
83	2010	Kentucky
83	2010	IUPUI
83	2010	Baylor

After looking at the scores quite a bit over the past few days, I can tell you these are some low scores to be sitting there at the top of the list.  Nobody really plays like Syracuse, which means nobody will have had any practice against similar opponents when the last half of March rolls around.

2010 Duke - 2010 Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM
88	2010	Maryland
88	2010	Texas
88	2010	Missouri
87	2010	Kansas
87	2010	West Virginia
87	2010	Xavier
86	2010	VCU
86	2010	Kansas St.
86	2010	California
86	2010	Washington

I guess tomorrow's Duke-Maryland tilt is actually the mirror image match up I was looking for in KU-UK.  These scores are also a bit low for the top comps, so Duke may also be able to slightly surprise their opponents come tournament time.

2010 Villanova - 2010 Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM
90	2010	Mississippi
89	2010	Washington
89	2010	Kansas St.
89	2010	Louisville
89	2010	Baylor
89	2010	California
89	2010	Texas
89	2010	Xavier
89	2010	Vanderbilt
88	2010	Kansas

The Wildcats play like the Murderers' Row of Mississippi, Washington, and Louisville!  There are only two teams on this list that hack their opponents anywhere near as much as Villanova (0.497 FTA/FGA): Washington (0.479) and Kansas State (0.467).  How painful to watch would a Wildcats vs. Wildcats regional final be?

2010 Ohio State - 2010 Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM
91	2010	Brigham Young
91	2010	Georgetown
91	2010	Gonzaga
90	2010	Xavier
90	2010	Arizona St.
90	2010	Utah St.
90	2010	Texas El Paso
90	2010	Kansas
89	2010	Nevada Las Vegas
89	2010	Oklahoma St.

Apparently Ohio State plays like a mid major team from the west.  I guess that would make Evan Turner the Jimmer Fredette of the Big Ten.  Gonzaga and Xavier are both 6 seeds in the most recent Bracket Project, with Ohio State sitting on the 3 line, so there's a decent chance we could see a like vs. like game in the second round.