Similarity Scores: Title Contenders

This is part 3 (or 5, depending on if you count the posts at UFR) of the Similarity Scores series. The post on how the scores are calculated is here, in case you missed it.  Tonight I'll be taking a look at which teams from the past are most similar to the current AP Top 10, and how those teams fared in the NCAA tournament.

[Data is from games through March 1, 2008.]

The Big 12 post ended up checking in at a Posnanskian length, which is usually a bad thing for anyone other than Joe, so I'm going to keep the commentary to a minimum this time.  Also, there will be a couple changes to the lists themselves.  First, I'm only including teams that made the NCAA tournament.  If they weren't good enough to make it, they can't be THAT good of a comp.  And second, I'm adding two new columns to these graphs: NCAA seed, and PASE (Performance Against Seed Expectation).  This tells to what extent each team exceeded or fell short of expectations, relative to their seed in the big dance.

2010 Syracuse - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	SEED	W's	PASE
90	2009	Syracuse	3	2	0.1
88	2005	Syracuse	4	0	-1.5
88	2008	Kansas	1	6	2.6
88	2006	Kansas	4	0	-1.5
87	2005	North Carolina	1	6	2.6
87	2007	Kansas	1	3	-0.4
87	2006	Florida	3	6	4.1
86	2007	Georgetown	2	4	1.6
86	2004	Providence	5	0	-1.1
86	2008	Georgetown	2	1	-1.4
		Average	2.6	2.8	0.5

Pretty all-or-nothing here - 3 champs, and 3 first round upsets.  But notice that the upsets are all 4/5 seeds, meaning they may have had good numbers, but they apparently didn't take care of business as well as this year's Orangemen.  Limit it to seeds 1 through 3, and you're looking at an average of 4 wins, and a +1.3 PASE.  Or, looking at just 1 seeds, where 'Cuse expects to end up this year, we see 5 wins and a +1.6 PASE.




2010 Kansas - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	SEED	W's	PASE
94	2007	Kansas	1	3	-0.4
94	2005	Louisville	4	4	2.5
93	2008	Kansas	1	6	2.6
93	2004	Cincinnati	4	1	-0.5
93	2004	Connecticut	2	6	3.6
92	2008	Memphis	1	5	1.6
92	2004	Gonzaga	2	1	-1.4
92	2007	Texas A&M	3	2	0.1
92	2009	Gonzaga	4	2	0.5
92	2006	Florida	3	6	4.1
		Average	2.5	3.6	1.3

This has changed very little from when I first posted it on UFR, so I'll refer you back there for extended commentary.  The Gonzaga teams put up similar numbers against much weaker WCC foes, so I feel comfortable excluding them, which leaves us with an average of 4.1 wins and +1.7 PASE.

2010 Kentucky - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	SEED	W's	PASE
94	2006	Connecticut	1	3	-0.4
93	2004	Mississippi St.	2	1	-1.4
93	2005	Connecticut	2	1	-1.4
93	2004	Connecticut	2	6	3.6
92	2009	Connecticut	1	4	0.6
92	2006	Louisiana St.	4	4	2.5
92	2006	Memphis	1	3	-0.4
92	2007	Memphis	2	3	0.6
91	2006	North Carolina	3	1	-0.9
91	2007	Kansas	1	3	-0.4
		Average	1.9	2.9	0.2

Despite the average wins and PASE being pretty similar to Syracuse's table, this one still feels a little less promising to me.  I'd say it's because there are only 2 teams who had a PASE of at least 1, whereas Syracuse had 4, and Kansas had 5.  And to win the tournament, they're going to have to post a PASE of 2.56 (#1 seeds are expected to win 3.44 games).  Plus there are no comps that we can throw out to make it look nicer.

2010 Duke - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	SEED	W's	PASE
91	2008	Memphis	1	5	1.6
91	2004	Duke	1	4	0.6
90	2004	Texas	3	2	0.1
89	2005	Oklahoma	3	1	-0.9
89	2008	UCLA	1	4	0.6
89	2009	West Virginia	6	0	-1.2
89	2007	Memphis	2	3	0.6
89	2009	North Carolina	1	6	2.6
89	2009	Memphis	2	2	-0.4
89	2008	Marquette	6	1	-0.2
		Average	2.6	2.8	0.3

Right off the bat, we some some good news, in that none of the choking Dukies from the past few years are on here.  This year's team doesn't get pushed around as much - this is the best offense rebounding Duke team since 2004, as well as the least likely to get their shot blocked.  Plus they have 4 players in the top 250 in Offensive Rating (according to Pomeroy) compared to 2 in 2009 and 1 in 2008. The top option (Scheyer this year) doesn't have to carry the team every night, which should keep him fresher for the postseason, as well as making them more able to survive when he has an off night.  As far as the numbers here, they look very similar to Syracuse and Kentucky, though closer to the latter.  If we remove the 6 seeds, W's rises to 3.4, but PASE stays relatively low at +0.6.

2010 Kansas State - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	SEED	W's	PASE
94	2006	Memphis	1	3	-0.4
92	2007	Memphis	2	3	0.6
91	2004	Mississippi St.	2	1	-1.4
91	2008	Kansas St.	11	1	0.5
91	2008	Marquette	6	1	-0.2
91	2006	North Carolina	3	1	-0.9
91	2007	Marquette	8	0	-0.7
90	2008	Clemson	5	0	-1.1
90	2009	West Virginia	6	0	-1.2
90	2006	Washington	5	2	0.9
		Average	4.9	1.2	-0.4

Despite having an outside shot at a #1 seed, this list is filled with lower seeds.  Perhaps they should not be winning this much, playing the style they're playing.  But they are, and many of these other teams were not, which makes comparisons shaky, at best.  Still, the largest overachiever here is 2006 Washington, with a PASE of only +0.9.  Not very promising.  Remove the lower seeds (5+), and it doesn't get much better: 2 wins and -0.5 PASE.

2010 Ohio State - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	SEED	W's	PASE
93	2009	Gonzaga	4	2	0.5
93	2008	Washington St.	4	2	0.5
92	2008	Davidson	10	3	2.4
92	2007	Ohio St.	1	5	1.6
92	2009	Arizona St.	6	1	-0.2
91	2007	UCLA	2	4	1.6
91	2008	Gonzaga	7	0	-0.9
91	2007	Wisconsin	2	1	-1.4
91	2008	Indiana	8	0	-0.7
91	2008	Xavier	3	3	1.1
		Average	4.7	2.1	0.5

Another one filled with lower seeds, but at least these low ones punched above their weight.  It's not fair to include 2007 Wisconsin on here, as the Brian Butch injury ruined any chance they had.  Remove the Badgers, and the numbers improve ever so slightly, to 2.2 wins and +0.7 PASE.  Then remove the low seeds (6+) and the mid majors (yes, even Davidson), and we're looking at 3.5 wins and +1.2 PASE.  Keep in mind that these are based on full season numbers, so having a healthy Evan Turner might have resulted in a different list.

2010 Purdue - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	SEED	W's	PASE
94	2004	Wisconsin	6	1	-0.2
93	2009	Purdue	5	2	0.9
93	2007	Wisconsin	2	1	-1.4
93	2008	West Virginia	7	2	1.2
93	2007	Washington St.	4	1	-0.5
92	2009	Memphis	2	2	-0.4
92	2008	Washington St.	4	2	0.5
92	2009	West Virginia	6	0	-1.2
92	2004	Cincinnati	4	1	-0.5
92	2004	Nevada	10	2	1.4
		Average	5.0	1.4	0.0

This list is basically moot due to the fact that they broke their valuable Hummel, but as long as I'm looking at the AP Top 10, I'll include them for the sake of completeness.  I find it funny that 2007 Wisconsin is on here, considering  their similar plight.  Instead of removing them, as I did above, we might want to just assume a similar fate will befall Purdue.  Tough luck, fellas.

2010 New Mexico - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	SEED	W's	PASE
92	2009	Marquette	6	1	-0.2
92	2009	Villanova	3	4	2.1
91	2009	Tennessee	9	0	-0.6
91	2007	Gonzaga	10	0	-0.6
91	2009	Brigham Young	8	0	-0.7
91	2008	Davidson	10	3	2.4
91	2007	Davidson	13	0	-0.3
91	2008	Indiana	8	0	-0.7
90	2005	Vermont	13	1	0.8
90	2007	Old Dominion	12	0	-0.6
		Average	9.2	0.9	0.2

You could say this one is also for the sake of completeness, as I don't believe New Mexico belongs anywhere in the top 10.  And I think this list for the most part bears that out.  For the other teams, I removed the teams from second tier leagues, since their similar stats were earned against disparate competition.  I guess it's only fair to remove the major teams from this comparison, which leaves the Lobos' comps with an average of 0.7 wins and a PASE of +0.2.

2010 Villanova - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	SEED	W's	PASE
92	2006	Washington	5	2	0.9
92	2009	Villanova	3	4	2.1
91	2007	Virginia	4	1	-0.5
91	2004	Wake Forest	4	2	0.5
91	2008	Western Kentucky	12	2	1.4
91	2007	Notre Dame	6	0	-1.2
90	2008	Indiana	8	0	-0.7
90	2004	North Carolina	6	1	-0.2
90	2007	Tennessee	5	2	0.9
90	2009	North Carolina	1	6	2.6
		Average	5.4	2.0	0.6

This list is full of teams with good offenses and mediocre defenses, which I assumed meant they'd be underperformers.  I'm a bit surprised that this group has the second-highest PASE.  However, the average win total is not as impressive, since many of these teams were seeded much lower than 'Nova expects to be. Remove the #5's and above, and we're left with 3.3 wins and a PASE of +1.2.  Quite good.

2010 West Virginia - Historical Comps

SCORE	YR	TEAM	SEED	W's	PASE
95	2009	West Virginia	6	0	-1.2
94	2009	Pittsburgh	1	3	-0.4
93	2008	Kansas St.	11	1	0.5
93	2004	Illinois	5	2	0.9
93	2008	Pittsburgh	4	1	-0.5
92	2004	Texas	3	2	0.1
92	2005	Michigan St.	5	4	2.9
92	2006	Illinois	4	1	-0.5
92	2009	Michigan St.	2	5	2.6
92	2004	Cincinnati	4	1	-0.5
		Average	4.5	2.0	0.4

West Virginia may be inconsistent, but they are quite good when they're on, which I think squares with this chart.  They have the potential to make a deep run, if Good WVU shows up for every game.  However, their most similar team is last year's version, which channeled Bad WVU against Dayton.  I think they learn from last year, and we see Good WVU for several games.

Now that we've gone through all ten, here's a summary table that compiles the averages from each one:

TEAM	SEED	W	PASE	ADJ_W	ADJ_PASE	OVER_1
Kansas	2.5	3.6	1.3	4.1	1.7	5
Kentucky	1.9	2.9	0.2	2.9	0.2	2
Syracuse	2.6	2.8	0.5	4	1.3	4
Duke	2.6	2.8	0.3	3.4	0.6	2
Ohio St.	4.7	2.1	0.5	3.5	1.2	4
Villanova	5.4	2	0.6	3.3	1.2	3
West Virginia	4.5	2	0.4	2.6	0.7	2
Purdue	5	1.4	0	1	-1.4	2
Kansas St.	4.9	1.2	-0.4	2	-0.5	0
New Mexico	9.2	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.2	2

From the looks of this, Kansas and Syracuse have to be your favorites at this point, which is exactly what the polls say.  Duke, Kentucky, Ohio State, and Villanova are in the next tier.  West Virginia is another step down, and then Kansas State and New Mexico appear to be pretenders.