Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Similarity Predictions: Sweet 16

This post is just a chart of the Pomeroy, Similarity, and Vegas predictions for the Sweet 16 games.  Technically these will change a bit before the Friday games (since predictions will be affected by how past opponents do on Thursday), but it should be a minor difference, so I’m just going to get all eight games out of the way now.


The yellow lines are there to remind that there are injuries involved, which means you should beware of what any stats say about these games.  I do like that when I subtract Purdue’s Hummel games, the prediction swings wildly over to Duke’s favor.  I can’t say I disagree.  I don’t have time for much commentary since I spent a large part of the evening writing a preview for the Xavier-KSU game, but I will say that there are a surprising number of differences between Pomeroy and my system – though none that outright disagree on which team will win.  I’m hoping the big underdogs do as well as the similarity system predicts.

And here’s a teaser for tomorrow – I’m planning on doing a log5 odds table for the Sweet 16 (like this), only with my similarity predictions.  Check back Wednesday evening for that!

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