Similarity Preview: Kansas State vs. Xavier

[NOTE: Cross posted at Upon Further Review.]
[NOTE 2: More problems with tables.  I apologize in advance.]

Today I’ve gone more in-depth than I expected do, as there are so many interesting factors influencing this prediction.  So I’ll spare you the BS intro and get right to the fun part.  As always, since this is a post design for UFR, I’ll assume you’re already intimately familiar with Kansas State, and the first half will focus on Xavier’s style of play.  We’ll start with Xavier’s offense.

XAVIER OFFENSE
Key Traits:			Off Eff	TO%	3P%	2P%	OReb%
	2010	Xavier	115.8	17.8	37.4	50.4	33.7
Std Dev from Ave			1.6	1.4	1.0	0.7	0.1
SIM	Similar Teams		Off Eff	TO%	3P%	2P%	OReb%
94	2010	Villanova	116.7	18.7	37.3	50.4	37.6
93	2010	Memphis	114.8	17.0	38.8	50.6	32.5
92	2010	Mississippi	113.4	17.1	36.7	50.8	34.7
92	2010	Vanderbilt	113.7	19.2	36.9	51.5	32.2
92	2010	Virginia Commonwealth	112.3	18.2	36.7	50.4	36.3

Xavier can shoot well and doesn’t turn the ball over, but these stats indicate they're not great on the offensive boards.  One game ago I would have warned you to look past the stats, as in their 10 games leading up to round two against Pitt, they averaged an extremely high 39.4% offensive rebounding percentage (which would rank them 12^th in the nation if they’d done it all year.  I thought they had put the pads on during practice, and solved their issues.  But then they came out in the last game and went back to their old ways, only grabbing 19% of their offensive misses.  If weak sauce Xavier shows up again in the Sweet 16, they’re likely finished.

One stat not listed above is Block% - Xavier gets blocked on 12% of their shots, which ranks 323^rd out of 347 teams.  This plays right into Kansas State’s hands, as they block 12.8% of opponent shots, 25^th best nationwide.  Curtis Kelly should be salivating.

XAVIER DEFENSE
Key Traits:			Def Eff	OReb%	eFG%	TO%	3P%
	2010	Xavier	91.8	29.2	45.4	18.1	29.5
Std Dev from Ave			1.4	1.5	1.5	-1.3	2.1
SIM	Similar Teams		Def Eff	OReb%	eFG%	TO%	3P%
93	2010	Illinois	92.3	30.0	46.2	17.8	31.9
92	2010	Cincinnati	93.8	29.2	47.2	18.0	34.0
91	2010	Gonzaga	94.6	29.5	46.8	18.5	33.9
91	2010	Wofford	92.2	29.1	46.5	21.4	30.5
91	2010	Michigan St.	91.1	28.1	46.7	18.9	33.0

Xavier’s defense is very good on the boards (39^th best in defensive rebounding), but they’ll be up against a Kansas State team that’s even better on the offensive glass (5^th overall).  It should be a fun strength-on-strength battle.  The Musketeers also defend the perimeter well, but are a bit weaker on the inside, despite being the 37^th tallest team in the country.  But their biggest deficiency is that they don’t force teams to turn it over.  This has to be an advantage for KSU, as their biggest offensive weakness is turnovers.  My gut says these matchups favor Kansas State.

These teams played way back in early December, with the Wildcats winning handily, 71-56.  I’ll save the prediction table for the end, but let you know now that Pomeroy’s ratings, my system, and the sportsbooks are all predicting something far closer.  Why is that?  For one thing, Xavier was playing its worst offensive basketball of the season at that point.  The Musketeers are a relatively young team (253^rd in Pomeroy’s Experience rankings), and it took them some time to find themselves at the start of the year.  They came out strong in the first few games, against such luminaries as Youngstown State, Bowling Green, and Sacred Heart.  But then they started playing tough opponents, and they simply couldn’t score.  Things finally clicked against Butler, and from then on, they played well.  Here’s a look at their season, broken into sections.  They played Kansas State in the bolded section:

XAVIER's Season
Adjusted Efficiency
Games	Offense	Defense
1-3: Minnows	123.4	87.1
4-9: Struggles	102.4	87.2
10-13: Figuring It Out	119.9	100.6
14-30: Conference	118.0	92.8
31-34: Postseason	118.4	92.4

So, don’t read too much into that first game.  Xavier is playing much, much better basketball now.  Of course, so is Kansas State:

KANSAS STATE's Season
Adjusted Efficiency
Section	Offense	Defense
1-14: Nonconference	117.4	90.9
15-30: Conference	114.6	88.2
31-35: Postseason	125.4	89.4

They got their befuddling loss to an Iowa-based team out of the way in the regular season, and have turned it up a notch in the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments.  Vegas puts the Cats as 4.5-point favorites, and Pomeroy (as you can see below) has them slightly.  Given how fantastically KSU has played recently, I rather like the prediction my system has come up with:

KANSAS ST. vs. XAVIER
Adjusted Efficiency
Team/Unit	Full Season	Vs. Comps
Kansas St. Off	116.8	119.7
Kansas St. Def	88.8	83.7
Xavier Off	115.8	115.0
Xavier Def	91.8	89.2
Game Prediction
System:	Pomeroy	Similarity
Winner	Kansas St.	Kansas St.
Margin	+3.2	+7.7
Probability	62%	77%

In games against similar opponents, these teams have performed well on both sides of the ball, with one exception – Xavier’s offense, which has just barely failed to match its season average.  The biggest influencer of the prediction, though, is Kansas State’s defense.  The numbers say that the Wildcats should be able to limit Xavier, and come away with a victory.